Poll Dancing

1980 polls.  All polls showed Carter leading Reagan comfortably through the year.  Reagan won by 9 points and took 44 states in what was generally considered a “landslide”.

In November, 2008, Costas Panagopoulos, Ph.D., from the Department of Political Science at Fordham University found Rasmussen and Pew to be the most accurate.
http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf
OR maybe not.
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/67204268/TIPP_accuracy_2008.pdf
(Note Investor’s Business Daily is affiliated with TIPP)

So, what’s current in polling? There are many, here is TIPP poll from September 10 showing Obama 46%, Romney 44% and contains many different categories and breakdowns.
http://www.tipponline.com/presidency/news/presidency/race-tightens-as-obama-advantage-narrows-to-2-points
No indication in that link of sample size, methodology, etc.

Imagine sitting backwards on bicycle and gauging what is going on in front of you by looking behind you.  The data are not new in these polls, usually being several weeks old.  It’s nearly impossible to gauge what is going on by looking in rearview mirrors.

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